Sooke Community and Real Estate Blog 642Blog.ca

What the hell? I leave the Island for 10 days and it falls apart on me?

I got back on late Sunday night from a week in Mexico to attend my cousin’s wedding and generally unplug from the world for awhile. On that note, an all-inclusive resort with 40 friends and family and really expensive internet connections is a great stress reliever. Before that I spent a couple days on the mainland with (different) friends and (same) family to ring in the new year (kinda lame) and go skating at Richmond’s fabulous new Olympic Speedskating Oval (totally sweet).

So, being unplugged for a week (well, that and not being geographically co-located with the weather system) caused me to miss most of the weather chaos. It would suck to live in Port Renfrew about now, what with the main highway being washed out and all. Sooke Road (aka Provincial Highway 14), for those not in the know, is a complete disaster all the way along. Sooke Potholes no longer refers to the swimming hole on the Sooke River, but I bet there are some on the road big enough to swim in. I managed to ruin a perfectly good rim and tire on my car by hitting a huge one on Tuesday evening. Mainroad Contracting is going to get a nice letter.

Tonight, the kind folks from the Provincial Emergency Program were at the Sooke Council Chambers to offer information and applications to residents who suffered uninsured damage to their homes during 6-8 January, 2009.

Can somebody please explain to me why gas prices have increased by $0.15 while oil prices have decreased to below $40/bbl again? Somebody is gouging, I don’t care what they say.

Last night I attended, with the other directors of the Victoria Real Estate Board, the Canadian Home Builders Association Crystal Ball event, which featured several economists and our Board President, Chris Markham, giving their outlook on the economy and the housing markets for 2009. It was a good event, but obviously a heavy topic. I can’t imagine too many home builders that are thrilled about the recent slowdown in real estate sales.

Über-pessimist economist David Hobden of Central 1 Credit Union gave a grim forecast for 2009 (and 2010 somewhat), stating that the Island and Coast region are already in recession, and will remain so. He forecasts housing value to drop by 10 per cent in 2009. Hobden appeared to want to be anywhere but in that room last night, and his body language screamed doom, gloom, and defeat – it was painful to watch.

Jock Finlayson, BC Business Council executive vice president of policy was slightly more optimistic, and a much better speaker. He delivered his not-exactly-rosy forecast with levity and looked as if he enjoyed informing the room, which he had laughing on many occasions – and his visuals were way easier to read and understand. Finlayson explained that 2009 will be a difficult year, but by mid-year, credit conditions that are slowing the business cycle should improve, along with the U.S. economy, and 2010 should be a much better year. He forecasts housing starts (new construction) to be down by 40 or 50 per cent. Finlayson did a great job of explaining where all this mess came from and how Canada is better positioned to spend its way out of this recession via deficit budgets. Another positive point came in the fact that job losses will not likely be as sharp as in previous recessions because the demographics of recent years (families having fewer children and later in life, and people nearing retirement) will keep heavy losses in check – I’m sure you realize how tight labour markets have been up until a few months ago.

Victoria Real Estate Board 2009 President Chris Markham explained that while sales are slowing, it’s hard to compare 2008 to 2007 because it was an exceptionally strong year. This was emphasized by CMHC market analyst Travis Archibald showing that 2008 sales were actually very close to the 15-year average. The same goes for housing starts. They fell by a large percentage in 2008 over 2007, but are in-line with the historical averages. CMHC will be releasing its full outlook next month.

I think that Vancouver Island, and in particular, Victoria will fare better than the rest of the province, as we have a diversified economy, and stable major employers such as government and military. As for housing, it’s opportunity time out there. Buyers have their choice of many properties, and many would-be first-time buyers from the last few years, priced out by the rapidly increasing prices, will be looking at re-entering the hunt.

So, all in all, maybe the Island isn’t falling apart exactly, and I’m glad to be back. I’m optimistic about 2009, and we’re all in this together, so you might as well be optimistic too.

It’s all you can do.

-Tim Ayres – Sooke Real Estate Professional

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Tagged: 2008 | 2009 | BC | chba | crystal ball | economic outlook | economy | flooding | Forecast | gas prices | housing | Market | Real Estate | recession | Sooke Potholes | Vancouver island | VREB

That’s right, folks, it’s a link fest. I don’t think I’ve ever actually done one, and I’m not sure why. I read lots of stuff online and I really should share more with you.

HMCS Rudolph: The 21st annual navy lighting contest gets underway tonight at CFB Esquimalt. Protecteur, Winnipeg and Algonquin will be part of the kick-off tonight.

Skate with Santa: Just a reminder that my office is hosting the annual Sooke Santa Skate at the SEAPARC Arena this Sunday, from 2:00-3:30. It would be great to meet some of my readers.

Go Peak to Peak: One of my favourite places, Whistler-Blackcomb is opening its brand new, record-setting Peak 2 Peak Gondola this weekend. Cruising across the valley between the two world-class mountains, visitors will sail over 3 kilometres between the towers!

Radius Victoria Rises: Like a zombie, it just keeps coming back from the dead. This time, as office space until the condo market improves.

Rental Housing Scarce: Victoria, Vernon, Kelowna, and Vancouver remain some of the tightest rental markets in Canada. The CMHC doesn’t take into account basement suites or private rentals, but nonetheless demand is there enough to drive up rents about $60 this year.

The Real Thing: One of several articles I read this morning about sales of real Christmas trees being on the increase this year. Personally, I won’t allow the fake ones in the house, but obviously that isn’t an option for some people.

Grinch Warning: The BBB warns of lots of potential Grinches out there on the Intertubes ready to steal your Christmas. Be wary of scams and use common sense! My lovely wife-to-be is not a scammer, just so you know.

8 Lives Left: After taking a spin in the washing machine, a kitten named Punkin Head Lover Bum has a perfectly reasonable fear of water.

Have fun this weekend, I can’t wait to get my tree!

-Tim Ayres – Sooke Real Estate Professional

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Tagged: activities | BC | blackcomb | CFB Esquimalt | christmas | Christmas2008 | housing | lights | naden | navy ships | Radius | rental | Santa | skate | Sooke | trees | Victoria | whistler

The Eco-Sense House in Victoria, BC

As a volunteer on the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Green Task Force, I was fortunate enough to visit a truly one-of-a-kind project in the Highlands District near Victoria yesterday. Ann and Gord Baird are the people behind Eco-Sense. Part lifestyle, part science experiment, part eco-pioneering, this truly amazing and simply fascinating home is nearing completion atop a rocky pinnacle in the rural municipality about 20 minutes outside downtown Victoria.

What’s so special about Eco-Sense? The short answer: Everything. Ann and Gord have invested myriad time and energy to research, design, and build North America’s first code-approved, seismically engineered load-bearing insulated cob house. As if that wasn’t enough, the home features a BC Hydro grid intertie system, meaning that their electrical meter flows both ways. When their solar and wind energy array is producing more power than the home requires, it reverses the flow of electricity, selling the excess to Hydro. Furthermore, the house is also heated by the sun with a solar hot water system, which also provides the hot water for the plumbing.

Ann and Gord's Living Room

From the foundation up, every detail has been thought about and constructed in a way that is not only environmentally sound, but also economically so. The foundation was poured with high fly-ash (a by-product of Albertan coal-fired power plants) concrete, and fabric forms were used to reduce waste wood. Total cost of forms? $300.

What’s cob? Cob is a building material; a mixture of sand, clay, and straw. Ann and Gord took this one step further and introduced pumice (lightweight, porous volcanic rock) into the mix to decrease the weight of the mixture, and to increase the insulative value. The cob is structural; there is no load-bearing framing in the walls of the home. One of the parts I found most interesting is the wiring and plumbing. Channels for the wires are carved out of the walls, the wiring installed and inspected by the city, and then simply filled over with more cob or plaster. It’s simple, seamless, and it works! Not only is the cob functional, but when finished in a lime-plaster it is also beautiful.

The house features lots of natural light. Light pipes direct sunlight from the roof into a dome-light-like fixture in the ceiling. Also, embedded in the walls are old glass bricks, and wine and beer bottles (my favourite were the blue ones). Other lighting is LED. While the bulbs cost considerably more than incandescent or compact fluorescent, they’ll last quite literally a lifetime, and use a mere fraction of the electricity.

Ann and Gord explain about their home.

Nearly all wood in the house is recycled, from local sources including the demolished Mayfair Lanes bowling alley (they even used the nails!).

The house has a composting toilet (no water use), a rainwater collection system for gardening, and a greywater (from sinks, laundry, and showers) treatment system, which is also used for irrigation.

It’s not easy being an eco-pioneer. Since no one has ever done the things that Ann and Gord have been doing, they have had to get each little step approved by the municipality. In fact, they had to shop around for a municipality that was willing to work with them to see this project through. Everything has been done to code, and that meant a few sacrifices. To appease the plumbing inspector, they had to install a flush toilet which has now been removed. They even had to install a $30,000 septic system, even though they aren’t going to be using it. Their toilet uses no water, and the rest of the wastewater is grey water, which is being treated and used for irrigation. Their modified cob mixture had to be strength tested in the lab. However, a nice by-product of building walls out of a non-flammable material is that you get a nice discount on your insurance.

The low-slope roofs will be living roofs, planted with native species. This replaces the vegetation that is lost where the house sits, and also helps insulate the home and purify the rainwater which also flows more evenly and slowly because the soil retains some water before it drains out.

Cob floors, before finishing

Now, one thing that’s always bugged me about so-called “green” buildings is that they cost ever so much to build, that it’s hard to get people to buy into it. Every system in the Eco-Sense house has been evaluated on a triple-bottom-line basis. All things considered, Ann and Gord figure that their per-square-foot cost is around $140. Standard construction starts around $150 as I understand it. This is also including an estimate of their labour cost over 15 months, and a very pricey $60,000 alternative heating system. Therein lies the beauty of what Ann and Gord are doing. They are building Eco-Sense the way they see as best for the planet, but realize that other people might have different ideas. You could do more or you could do less. The point is that there are alternatives to frame construction for single family, two-storey dwellings.

This was the kicker for me. It made sense to my logical business brain. Here are two people, who have a

Recycled glass is used extensively in the home.

lifestyle they want to live that has less of an impact of the natural environment, and they are demonstrating that it can be done very well while remaining with reach of the average family. Once municipal codes and building techniques catch up with the innovation that these two eco-pioneers are forging in the Highlands District of Victoria, it will become even easier and more within reach of the common man.

Why should only the rich be able to afford to be nice to our planet when it comes to housing?

-Tim Ayres – Sooke Real Estate Professional

For more information, check out Eco-Sense.ca. Ann and Gord offer fascinating tours for the general public, as well as private tours for technical/tradespeople. Many thanks to Ann and Gord for sharing their work with us. More photos can be found on my flickr page.

EDIT: For even more, check out Gord’s Flickr page, and the eco-sense blog

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Tagged: alternative | ann baird | BC | cob | construction | eco-sense | gord baird | green | Highlands | home | house | housing | living | solar | Sustainability | sustainable | tony joe | Victoria | Victoria Real Estate Board | VREB

Tightening of restrictions also eliminates zero-down-payment mortgages.

Yesterday, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) announced that it was pulling the plug on 40-year amortization periods for mortgages, stating that it will no longer provide its government-backed insurance for these products. Consumers will also have to come up with minimum 5 per cent down payment when making a purchase, too.

My take? Other than the 5% down payment requirement, this doesn’t really change much. You can still get a 35-year amortization on your new mortgage. The change in monthly payment between 35 and 40 years is negligible. On a $300,000 mortgage at 5.5%, this amounts to a $64/mo difference.

Also, the CMHC isn’t the only source for mortgage default insurance. The two major private insurers, Genworth and AIG haven’t yet stated what they will do in response to this announcement. It’s interesting that the CMHC was the first to introduce the 40-year amortization and zero-down; the private entitites following suit, and now they’ve reversed their earlier decision.

Overall, I think this is a step in the right direction, though. Canada’s lending practices have always been a little on the conservative side, and this is a step back to that ideology.

If you are a buyer who needs a 40-year zero-down mortgage, you can still take advantage of your pre-approval or get pre-approved before October 15, 2008, when the new rules take effect – you should probably start looking for your home now. If you currently have a 40-year mortgage, not to worry, as this only applies to new mortgages after October 15.

-Tim Ayres – Sooke Real Estate Professional

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Tagged: 35 year | 40 year | 5% | Canada | CMHC | housing | mortgage | restrictions | zero down

Nothing to comment on these numbers, but view the Sooke real estate statistics for June here.

Courtesy VREB:

Sales Soften, Prices Remain Stable

July 2, 2008

Sales of homes and other properties in the Greater Victoria area softened last month though prices continue to remain stable. Victoria Real Estate Board President, Tony Joe, notes that the modest decline in sales from May to June followed a similar pattern to last year. “There was a total of 723 sales of homes and other properties in June through the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) compared to the 770 sales in May. Although sales last month were down substantially compared to the 949 sales in June of last year, it is important to remember that 2007 was an exceptional year for the local real estate market.”

Joe notes that prices remain stable. The overall average price of single family homes in Greater Victoria last month was $580,104; the six-month average was $600,740 though the median was considerably lower at $538,000. “There will always be month-to-month fluctuations in prices, but when we consider that the six month average in January was just over $586,000 we see that prices have remained remarkably stable this year,” said Joe.

The number of properties available for sale continued to increase last month rising to 4,513 – a 27 % increase compared to June last year. “With more properties from which to choose, buyers clearly feel less pressure to make a quick decision, though sellers who price their homes realistically can still expect strong interest,” said Joe.

The average price of all condominiums sold in June was $319,943; the average for the last six months was $330,992. The median was again lower at $295,000. The average price of all townhomes sold last month was $431,992; the six month average was $432,152. The median price was $399,500.

MLS® sales last month included 395 single family homes, 180 condominiums, 81 townhomes and 23 manufactured homes.

Summary Report and Graphs

Monthly Sales Summary
Average Selling Price Graphs
Active Listings, New Listings and Sales Graphs

-Tim Ayres – Sooke Real Estate Professional

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Tagged: 2008 | BC | bubble | Canada | Forecast | housing | June | listings | Market | MLS | Real Estate | sales | Statistics | stats | Victoria | VREB

On our weekly MLS® tour yesterday, we were invited to Sooke’s popular master-planned community, Sunriver Estates to view their first multi-family development, the Pointe. The Pointe is a 4-unit-per-building townhouse complex, with 32 units sitting on 7 acres on a peninsula which juts out from De Mamiel Drive and is surrounded by the steep banks of De Mamiel Creek. The setting is stunning, and the townhomes are certainly impressive. The show suite we went through of course had all the bells and whistles upgrades – luxurious soaker tubs, hardwood floors, quartz countertops. The units are all one-level (although some require a climb of stairs from the front door) and range in size from about 1500 to nearly 1700 square feet, and feature open floor plans with lots of windows to enjoy the lush rainforest outside your door.

Prices start at $359,900 including GST. Sunriver knows their market and has done a spectacular job of their first multi-unit development. The show suite opens to the public this weekend, June 21 and 22

-Tim Ayres

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Tagged: Condo | housing | open house | senior | Strata | Sunriver | Townhome | Townhouse

No surprises here, inventory up, sales are down.

More evidence of balance in the real estate market (although with the number of new listings, I’m not sure just how ‘balanced’ it is!) was revealed today with the release of the Victoria Real Estate Board’s May MLS® statistics.

Despite a 25% increase in listings available for sale over the same time a year ago, prices seem to be remaining stable. 18There were virtually the same number of sales this month as last, but 193 less than May of 2007. Despite that, the average and six-month averages of condos, townhomes, and single family detached homes remain virtually the same.

What does it all mean? The number of properties available for sale has been increasing steadily all year. However, buyers are still out there, and it’s still common to see well-priced properties get snapped up very quickly. What is important, as I’ve said time and time again, is good marketing. With so much to choose from, buyers will very quickly skim over properties with horrible photos, bad write ups, or worse still, none of the above.

Below is the full Victoria Real Estate Board news release, with graphs.

More Choices Now Available for Home Buyers

June 2, 2008
With a return to a balanced real estate market, home buyers in the Victoria area now have a much larger pool of properties from which to choose. The number of properties available for sale increased to 4,332 in June – a 25 % increase over the same month a year ago and the highest level since June 1998.

Victoria Real Estate Board President, Tony Joe, notes that despite this increase, prices and sales remain stable although the number of sales is down compared to a year ago. “There was a total of 770 sales of homes and other properties in May through the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), virtually unchanged from the 768 sales in April but down from the 963 sales in May of last year.” Joe noted that a significant number of new properties came on the market last month: “There were 1,850 new listings in May – the highest number for a single month in over 18-years”. Joe added that 24 sales over $1 million had an impact on the overall average price of single family homes in Greater Victoria which last month was $601,897; the six-month average was $606,985 though median was considerably lower at $545,000. There were also three sales on the Gulf Islands of over $1 million.

The average price of all condominiums sold in May was $336,157; the average for the last six months was $333,208. The median was again lower at $295,500. The average price of all townhomes sold last month was $435,058; the six month average was $433,854. The median price was $394,900.

MLS® sales last month included 470 single family homes, 168 condominiums, 71 townhomes and 25 manufactured homes.

Summary Report and Graphs

Monthly Sales Summary
Average Selling Price Graphs
Active Listings, New Listings and Sales Graphs

Courtesy Victoria Real Estate Board

-Tim Ayres

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Tagged: 2008 | BC | bubble | Canada | Forecast | housing | listings | Market | May | MLS | Real Estate | sales | Statistics | stats | Victoria | VREB

Expect sales volume to ease, prices to increase more slowly

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) has released its semi-yearly housing market forecast for the province. Despite economic troubles elsewhere in the country, B.C.’s economy is expected to remain strong and to outpace many other areas in Canada in terms of growth through 2009.

Provincial sales will dip to 93,800 in 2008 (a 9% drop) and 92,000 in 2009 (a further 2% drop). Eroding affordability and weaker economic growth are cited as reasons for the expected decline. Still, interprovincial and international migration will continue to underpin demand for housing in B.C., with individuals drawn to our province by robust job growth, climate, and amenities. The average residential price in B.C. is forecast ro increase 9 per cent to $479,000 this year, and a futher 4 per cent to $499,000 in 2009.

Regionally, BCREA predicts that Victoria MLS® sales will fall to 7800 units, a decline of 7 per cent from last year’s second-highest-on-record 8403 sales. Sales will remain above the ten-year average of 6750 units. The report notes that 12,000 jobs were created in the Victoria area in the first quarter of 2008. As I’ve said before, as our area diversifies its economy beyond government, military, and tourism, more and more people will continue to move here, attracted by competitive salaries and our Island way of life. The report forecasts an overall 10 per cent increase in prices this year, but notes that most of that growth has already occurred, and to expect single-digit growth for the rest of the year.

I think the most interesting prediction in the report is with housing starts. The report forecasts overall housing starts to drop 9 per cent this year (after a 6 per cent decline in 2007). Citing tight construction labour markets, higher credit costs, and trepidation on the part of developers, the BCREA feels that current new home inventories will be depleted, resulting in a higher level of construction activity in 2009 and 2010.

One thing to remember is that the BCREA’s report is based solely on MLS® data, and would not include sales of new homes by the developer’s private sales team, for example.

What do you think about the report? Comment below!

The full BCREA report can be found here.

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Tagged: 2008 | 2009 | BCREA | bubble | economy | Forecast | housing | outlook | predictions | Real Estate

According to the CMHC in a recent survey, Canadians reported that they were eager to pay off their mortgages as quickly as possible.

Not exactly breaking news – who in their right mind would want to be indebted to a bank longer than absolutely necessary?

Why am I blogging about it then? Despite the duh-factor headline, when one looks further into the survey, some of the numbers are actually quite surprising.

• 78% of homeowners expressed an interest in paying off their mortgage as fast as possible.
• 33% had made a lump-sum payment for this purpose
• A whopping 84% of homeowners who make weekly or biweekly payments on the mortgage are doing so at an increased rate in order to pay off the mortgage quicker. [as little as 10% extra per month can shave years off your mortgage and save you tens of thousands in interest].
• Half of those surveyed said they would use extra money to pay down the mortgage whenever possible

Other items in the survey included confidence levels about housing debt: 85% of respondents felt comfortable that they could handle their mortgage debt load.

Also, Canadians were overall happy with the mortgage process and the service they received; 85% reported being satisfied. The number of people using the services of a mortgage broker rose from 27% in last year’s survey to 33% this year. I am surprised it is this low, actually. Mortgage brokers provide better rates with better service in most cases, ’shopping’ your file to as many as 50 different lenders who compete for your loan.

The full CMHC survey can be found here.

-Tim Ayres 

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Tagged: Canada | Canadians | CMHC | debt | housing | mortgage | Real Estate | survey

Year-end and December 2007 Statistics Released

The Victoria Real Estate Board has released the December 2007 and year-end statistics:

Real Estate Records Broken in 2007

The value of all property transactions through the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) hit a new record of over $4.1 billion in 2007, up from $3.3 billion in 2006. The value of single family home sales was over $2.5 billion while the value of condominium sales was over $756 million. Victoria Real Estate Board President Tony Joe noted that both sales and prices for all major property types increased last year. “Last year was another exceptional year for the local real estate market. The total number of sales increased over 12 per cent while the overall average price for single family homes rose 8.5 per cent; the average for condominiums rose over 11 per cent and the average for townhomes rose 10.5 per cent,” said Joe.

Meantime, the sale of 14 single family homes in Greater Victoria over $1 million pushed the average price to a new record high of $624,450 last month [Note: The sale of an island completed last month for $7 M, which would have skewed the average considerably - Tim] ; the median price, however, was considerably lower at $536,000. “It’s always important to bear in mind that the average price in a given month can often be significantly affected by the sale of high-priced homes,” noted Joe. The six-month average for single family homes in December was $581,419.

The average price of all condominiums sold in December was $332,793; the average for the last six months was $319,980. The median was again lower at $292,900. The average price for townhomes sold last month was $445,960; the average for the last six-months was $415,648. The median price was $387,900.

There were 408 MLS® sales last month, up from 385 sales in December of last year. There were 623 sales in November. Sales last month included 202 single family homes, 120 condominiums, 46 townhomes and 8 manufactured homes.

There were 2,799 properties listed for sale on the MLS® system at the end of last month, up from the 2,650 properties in the same month a year ago.

 

Summary Report and Graphs

Monthly Sales Summary
Average Selling Price Graphs
Active Listings, New Listings and Sales Graphs

At the end of 2006, listings had been steadily increasing, and sales were lower than the booming year of 2005. Everyone was on edge for expectations for 2007. The year surprised us all, with interest rates rising by one-quarter per cent and then being cut by that one-quarter in December. Steady, low interest rates breed consumer confidence and keep home ownership possible as increasing prices erode affordability. An increase in good-paying jobs, record-low unemployment, and migration and investment from out of the area all helped to push the market to record heights this past year.

What does 2008 hold? I see steady price increases, but on a slower, more moderate scale. As prices increase, affordability continues to be eroded. The Bank of Canada meets on Jan 22, with David Dodge expected to announce a cut in interest rates as his final duty before stepping down as governor. The continued diversification of the local economy, with more high-tech jobs and the decline in tourism from the U.S. being replaced with domestic and international visitors, will drive migration to this corner of the country and keeps our market on sound financial footing.

Sorry, bubble-blowers, there just isn’t one here to burst.

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Tagged: 2007 | 2008 | BC | bubble | December | housing | interest rate | MLS | predictions | Real Estate | Sooke | Statistics | Victoria | year-end